Monday, October 8, 2012

The Real Cost of the Cup


Are you curious about the "real costs"  of single use items? Watch
Inside Santa Barbara
on Channel 18 where they will explore the upstream costs associated with producing a single use item and the downstream cost sassociated with throwing it away after it's used only one time. 
Monday - 8PM  
Tuesday - 5 PM 
Wednesday - 6 PM 
Saturday - 9 PM 
Sunday - 10 PM

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Santa Barbara South Coast Real Estate Market Report


Great article written by an agent in my office.

August 2012
By
Jackie Walters
Village Properties

Three words can aptly describe today’s South Coast real estate market: Demand outpaces supply! –This state of market fervor certainly applies more to entry-level price ranges than higher priced properties, however, across the whole market, buyers are not finding as many homes to choose from as they would like. Many qualified and motivated buyers who are entering the market are not finding a property to suit their needs in the current active listings, and are forced to rely upon the daily updates for that special new listing, hoping they will not have to endure a multiple-offer situation. Our treasured community is bordered by the Santa Ynez mountains to the North and the Pacific Ocean to the South. With no room to expand, South Coast homes will always be in limited supply. 

Local months of inventory numbers have dropped significantly over the past twelve months and literally plummeted since the real estate doldrums of 2008/2009. As you can see from Table 1, there is currently 3.1 months of inventory market wide. Months of inventory, sometimes referred to as “market velocity,” is a way to compare current pending sales with homes still for sale. It shows the amount of time it would take to sell all available properties, assuming no new listings, at the current pace of sales. The lower the number, the more active the market. Three months of inventory or less is suggestive of a strong sellers’ market; 3 to 6 months is a more balanced market; 6 to 9 months of inventory is indicative of a buyers’ market; 9 months of inventory or more is a soft or weak market that is highly favorable to buyers.

As a short retrospective, our local real estate market showed signs of weakening in 2005, which was initially limited to entry-level housing in Goleta and Carpinteria. Foreclosures began to steadily increase in those communities, and through 2006, many bank-owned properties languished unsold. The median sold price for houses and PUDs in the City of Santa Barbara maintained a peak of approximately $1.2 million from 2005 through 2007 following several years of strong sales and appreciating values. Over the same period, neighboring Montecito, an area with a much higher percentage of more expensive homes, continued an upward march in median and average sold prices, going up around 10% per year through the end of 2007. As prices of higher priced homes peaked; entry-level housing began to show signs of a slow recovery, although prices would continue to slide. 2008 through 2010 saw values of mid and upper priced properties sink considerably, by as much as 30-40%. The first quarter of 2010 saw a reemergence of high-end estate sales, a market that had been virtually at a standstill. Fast forward, entry-level housing has had strong sales for the last two years and the past 12 months has seen steady to good sales numbers in almost all other price ranges.

Looking at the charts, Table 1 shows 856 closed escrows for houses and PUDs (Planned Unit Development), year to date through August 2012 compared to 622 for the same period for 2011, an increase of over 37%. Looking at the median sales price for August, again for houses and PUDs, this stands at $827,500, up from the 2012 year to date number of $799,000. 2011 year to date closed median price, through August, was $816,000, showing evidence that prices do seem to be “bumping off the bottom.” Another look at months of inventory numbers shows very active markets in Goleta, with 1.4 months of inventory and Santa Barbara with 2.1 months of inventory. Montecito at 7.1 months of inventory for the month of August 2012, shows a steady market with 22 homes going into escrow and 22 homes closing escrow. Very encouraging numbers for a market which was previously stymied at more than 20 months of inventory.

New listings are down year to date. House and PUD new listings through the end of August 2012 are at 1,231, a 7.2% decrease from 1,327 for the same period one year ago. An astounding statistic is the dollar volume of sales, which at $193,774,009 for the month of August 2012, is up from $115,307,517 for the same month one year ago, a staggering 68% increase. This clearly demonstrates the strong uptick in sales in the mid and upper price ranges. Another interesting barometer of the buyer/seller teeter-totter; sellers are getting, on average, 95.37% of their asking price (last listed price before home entered escrow, not “original” asking price), as compared to 93.76% one year ago. This translates into an additional $16,100 for the seller of a $1,000,000 home. Not a huge amount, but certainly an improvement.

Condo sales have also strengthened further. For the month of August 2012, there was only 1.2 months of inventory for South Coast condos in all price ranges. Sixty-three condos entered escrow in August, leaving only 73 condos remaining unsold. The median price for condos is $383,000, slightly down from the August 2012 year to date number of $400,000. The median price for August 2011 year to date was $425,000, a 5.9% drop year over year.

Where are we with “distressed sales”? The impact of bank-owned and short sales is still a factor in keeping prices at what are now 2002 to 2003 level prices. However, these “bank” sales only add fuel to today’s active market and are being snapped up by eager buyers, as they are most often priced aggressively.

Back to the charts, Table 2 shows quite dramatically how the number of houses, PUDs and condos entering escrow continues an upward trend. Likewise, the number of closed escrows is up significantly as compared to the five year average of closed sales for every month going back to November 2011. Table 3 shows the highest percentage of sales for houses and PUDs occurring in the $500,000 to $800,000 price range; for condos, the most active range is $200,000 to $400,000.

Lastly, interest rates remain at the lowest rates for decades, with 5-year fixed conforming loans at 2-3%, conforming 30-year fixed rate loans under 4%, and even 30-year fixed rate jumbo loans under 5%. Low interest rates coupled with low home prices mean “low” mortgage payments, often less than renting a similar property. I heard it put this way recently, “if 80% of the reasons seem to be in place to buy, then buy ..” or put another way, “Do all the stop lights on the way to LA need to be green before you go to LA?..” 

This is an exciting time to invest in Santa Barbara South Coast residential real estate. Contact a Realtor to advise you and help you secure this wonderful long term investment.